Forget what movie you actually liked. And forget the experts. The hot new way to predict winners is by using quantifiable data and rigorous statistical analyses. As one quantitative Oscar-predictor wrote in the Huffington Post, “This method is entirely mathematical: no personal hunches are taken into account.” A little impersonal, but hey. This is life in the Nate Silver era. Herewith is our guide to some of the top mathematical models for predicting the Oscars:
How it works
PredictWise’s Oscar projections combine data from several prediction markets, as well as data gathered from a game people can play to help with Rothschild’s research. PredictWise’s political forecasts use some numbers that don’t apply to the Oscars, such as past election results and the state of the economy.
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